GDP
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
US GDP, published quarterly by the BEA in three estimates, is the broadest scorecard of economic growth.
| Published by | Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) |
|---|---|
| Frequency | Quarterly — advance, second and third estimates |
| Release time | 8:30 AM ET |
What it measures
GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced, reported as an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate. The advance estimate (about a month after quarter-end) moves markets most; two revisions follow.
Why traders watch it
- Growth surprises reshape the whole macro narrative — recession odds, earnings paths and the Fed’s trade-off.
- The composition matters to traders as much as the headline: final sales vs inventories tell different stories.
How to read it
- Strip inventories and net exports — real final sales to domestic purchasers is the demand pulse.
- The GDP price index and core PCE within the release cross-check the inflation picture.
- Advance estimates rest on incomplete data; expect meaningful revisions.
FAQ
Why are there three GDP releases per quarter?
The BEA publishes an advance estimate about a month after the quarter ends, then second and third estimates as fuller source data arrives. The advance print carries the market impact.
What is a "good" GDP number?
Context-dependent. Near trend (~2%) reads as soft-landing friendly; far above trend can be hawkish via the rates channel; negative prints raise recession odds. The market trades the gap vs consensus, not the level alone.
Get every release pushed in seconds — download FirstPrint
The official source of each release is authoritative. Not investment advice.